The NFL is right around the corner, we finally know who will be taking the first snap for every team week 1. It has been a busy offseason, especially regarding QBs. This is not a fantasy ranking or what the quarterback should be ranked based on last season. This is Locksmith prophesying where the players will stand at the end of the season. So, let’s get started.
32. Tyrod Taylor
With all the chaos within the Texans organization it would be hard for even an extremely gifted QB to do well there this season. But for a QB that is a backup quality player, it will be a blood bath. Tyrod's decision-making and lack of arm strength/ accuracy will be exposed in the first drive the Texans have this year. He is a great a great locker room guy and always very helpful for developing younger QBs, but Tyrod is not a starting caliber player and will probably be replaced rather quickly by Davis Mills.
31. Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton is a step down from Mitch Trubisky, especially with the Bears' subpar O-Line. Dalton also struggled last year with a plethora of weapons that the Cowboys had. The Bears are very limited on offense and Dalton will be exposed with this problem; I expect Justin Fields will replace him around week 5.
30. Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater is not the guy you want to run out to the huddle for your team week 1, which says a lot about Drew Lock. Much like Tyrod he has all the off the field attributes but is limited on the field as a passer. Though Bridgewater is much better than Taylor. Bridgewater also has a better team around him and could help get the Broncos to .500 record. Bridgewater will not help your team win games but rarely is the reason why your team loses.
29. Tua Tagovailoa
Tua is like Bridgewater. Accurate passer with limited arm strength, who doesn't like to throw the jump ball. With the rumors of Miami being the front runners for Deshaun Watson, it seems they have little faith in him to develop into the prospect he was supposed to be. Tua will be an okay player but does not look like he will ever be a franchise quarterback.
28. Jalen Hurts
Hurts showed that he had talents last year. He can create both with his arm and legs, which seems to be what the league is transitioning to with QBs. He doesn't have a very strong arm and can sometimes be inaccurate but there is potential there. However, there’s a very small chance he reaches that potential with the disorganization of the Eagles franchise. I do not think they want to invest in Jalen very much. Also, the offensive line is horrid. The Eagles have had a rather week wide receiver group the last few years, but they did add Devonta Smith. I think Jalen will have a shaky year two mainly due to his surroundings.
27. Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson has a rocket arm and such a high ceiling. He has the potential to be a perennial all pro for a decade and change the piss poor Jets franchise. There's also a chance he never develops beyond being a wild gunslinger and that the Jets drag him down to their level. I don't think the latter will happen with Salah and his regime. They seem to have a solid coaching staff and will be able to develop him into a franchise QB, but Wilson will have growing pains his first due to his inexperience and lack of talent around him.
26. Cam Newton
Oh Cam. Once dubbed superman and MVP of the league, to now a bottom tier starting QB. Cam is still dangerous in the red zone and has a rocket arm. His inconsistent passing has always been a concern. But obviously the biggest reason for his downfall is all the injuries. Cam had an awful year last year and I don't think he will improve that much from it. The Patriots team did get a lot of weapons this year to put around him so maybe he could be a game manager and help them compete for the wild card. But the most likely scenario is Mac Jones coming in to replace him after their bye week (week 12).
25. Jared Goff
Goff is so unathletic. He has a great arm, but he takes too long to go through regressions and cannot move in the pocket. He is going to get killed in Detroit, but it isn't his fault. Obviously with the right system he can put up crazy stats. But the Lions do not have the right system for him, and I am suspect to see Dan Campbell as a play caller. Goff will probably be stuck in Detroit for the next two years because of his contract.
24. Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben did look good in his preseason game. I still don't think he will be that impressive throughout the regular season. Steelers have a mediocre receiver corp. Unless Claypool makes a big jump this season, expect the Steelers to feed Najee Harris and Ben to not have to pass very much.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo is a decent QB but not going to change your franchise. It seems like Garoppolo will be the for sure starter for the 49er’s week 1, as he should be. Garoppolo has proven himself capable with a super bowl appearance and having Belichick prefer him over Tom Brady for the Patriots. But Kyle Shanahan wants more than capable. He drafted Trey Lance because he can take a good offense to the next level with his arm and legs. Garoppolo has the keys to the offense but if he struggles for a stretch of few games, it will be Trey Lance time.
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzmagic unleashed. Fitz is the guy for the Football Team. Ryan Fitzpatrick is dangerous and can put up unreal numbers when he is confident. He has good receivers with McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. I think Fitz will be fun to watch this season, like he always is. The main concern with Fitzpatrick is the turnovers. If he can somehow limit them (which he has never done in his long career) he could be a top 20 QB in the NFL this season.
21. Trevor Lawrence
The first overall pick has his work cut out for him. The Jags have never had a true winning culture and I do not think Urban Meyer is cut out for the NFL. Lawrence is extremely gifted and is good enough to overcome a bad situation. He will have a good rookie season but not to the standard that Justin Herbert set last year. Also, expect Trevor to struggle with turnovers because ya know, rookies.
20. Derek Carr
Derek Carr is very mehh. He doesn't do much wrong but also isn't making very man big plays. I don't think he is getting very much support from Gruden and the coaching staff, but he is the number one guy their and will be for the entire season. His arm is okay and is an accurate passer but like I said earlier, he is not making you any big plays and isn't going to go out and win you many games.
19. Carson Wentz
Wentz has had such a weird career already. MVP candidate to castaway within 3 seasons. I think a change of scenery will be good for him and to reunite with his old coaching staff. Wentz has all the attributes to be a great QB but his decision making him kills him time and time again. If they can keep him on the field, expect him to have a bounce back year in Indy.
18. Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins. Very similar to Carr in the game manager aspect. He isn't going to turn the ball over and make stupid mistakes. But also, don't ask him to do too much. Limited as an athlete but occasionally has flashes of great plays. Good game manager and great leader in the locker room.
17. Joe Burrow
Burrow looked great in his few games last year. He has looked timid this preseason and theirs rumors about him being overly concerned about his knee at training camp. Burrow is great and will help the Bengals turn it around. The only problem is that they have one of the worst offensive lines in football and didn't do much to improve it. Burrow got crushed last year and it will probably be very similar this year. They did add his buddy Ja'Marr Chase, so that should be a fun connection to watch this year.
16. Baker Mayfield
Baker is a solid QB. Very accurate passer but not a great athlete but has a good arm. He is looking more like a game manager than a number 1 overall pick though. I think Baker can still live up to the hype out of college but right now he really isn't asked to do much. The Browns offense is built around the ground and pound between Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Baker doesn't have to go out there and win you games. Right now, Baker is a solid QB but there is more potential there that we probably won't get to see this season.
15. Jameis Winston
Former number 1 overall pick has everything you need to be a franchise QB. Arm, mobility, and works extremely hard. He just makes horrible decisions with the football. I think sitting behind a hall of famer for a season will help his maturity on the field and make him a true starting QB. Jameis should put up a lot of points this year with Sean Payton's new offense.
14. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is a great QB. I hate that his name will always be tarnished by the 28-3 choke game. He is getting older but still is a great player. The offense is great, but the defense and coaching has been awful. With a new coach and system Matt Ryan will have a quiet but consistent year.
13. Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones is going to ball out this year. Watching him play, you can tell there is a good QB that lives inside him, he just needs help coming out. The giants added weapons around him and Saquon is back. Also, year 2 in the Joe Judge system should help Danny Dimes have some consistency. Jones is a sneaky good athlete and will have a breakout year this season.
12. Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is a good QB. I think he is very overhyped by the media. He hasn't done enough for me to be completely sold on him and neither has Kingsbury. I think Kyler will have a similar season to last year, good numbers but not getting the results you would like to see.
11. Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill has resurrected his career in Tennessee. After leaving Adam Gase, Tannehill has flourished with Vrabel and the Titans. Tannehill has Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, along with Derrick Henry in the backfield. This offense will be a lot of fun to watch this year. I don't think Tannehill will put up too crazy of numbers because the Titans will still depend on King Henry to carry the main load of the offense.
10. Lamar Jackson
Lamar has been the answer for the Ravens offense. He is nearly unstoppable. I think teams will start to figure him out a little bit this year and try to eliminate the open field passing. The Ravens desperately need a true number one receiver, and they just have not been able to help Lamar out with that. Lamar is still great, and the Ravens will be contenders, but I don't he will put up the numbers he did two years ago.
9. Dak Prescott
Dak got paid. I think Dak will have a great season this year. He has loads of weapons around him and a healthy O-line. The only thing I’m worried about is his shoulder injury. If it lingers throughout the season, he will have to limit the number of passes and won't put up the crazy numbers like he did in the games he played last year.
8. Sam Darnold
I know this is a HOT take. But Darnold was drafted in the top 5 for a reason. He finally escaped Gase and the abysmal Jets organization. I also really like Matt Rhule and Joe Brady's offense in Carolina. They are trying to move to the air raid style, which will help Darnold a lot this season. He also will have by far the best offense he has had since entering the league. The Panthers moved off Bridgewater for him for a reason and didn't take a QB when Justin Fields was right there. The Panthers will put up a lot of points this year and have a chance to be in the wild card spot at the end of the season, and it will be because of Darnold's play.
7. Justin Herbert
Hebert is supposed to be the guy this year. After the best rookie season for a QB ever, Herbert has high expectations. He has everything you need for a franchise QB. Size, athleticism, arm, and extremely intelligent. I also think he will benefit from a new play caller instead of Anthony Lynn. Herbert should have a pro bowl appearance this year and make the Chargers a dangerous team.
6. Russell Wilson
Russel Wilson is great. He has carried the Seahawks for years. I don't think the Seahawks did enough this offseason to help him especially after the reports that he was extremely frustrated with the front office. Russ' O line has never helped him and will not be much better for this upcoming season. The defense still has major concerns, and I am skeptical of Pete Carrol's coaching style with today's NFL. Wilson is great and will be this year, but he has a lot of work cut out for him and will likely have a fair number of turnovers this year.
5. Josh Allen
As someone who has been on the Josh Allen train since the draft, last year was amazing. He went from being the guy who you just would hope wouldn't lose the game for the team to going out their winning games. He is equivalent to prime Cam Newton but with a stronger arm. He will be awesome again this year, but I don't know if the offense will reach the same magnitude as last year. Defenses will be scheming hard against him, but the Bills will be contenders to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC because of Allen and Sean McDermott's offense.
4. Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford will be resurrected this year. Best team he has ever been on by far. He is healthy for the first time in a long time. I am very excited to watch him play this year for McVay. Matt Stafford will have a 40 TD season and should get over 5k yards this season. He is going to light it up in LA and they made a big leap in their Super Bowl chances with Stafford.
3. Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers had an interesting offseason this year to say the least. This will not take away from his play for the season though. Rodgers will still put-up crazy stats and has a great offense around him and a solid play caller. I expect Rodgers will leave everything out on the field this year since it will likely be his last season in Green Bay.
2. Tom Brady
Tom Brady is the goat. He will not take a step back like people will suspect with his age. If you look at his last seven games (once he got familiar with the new system) and playoffs last year he led the NFL in passer rating and TDs. I think TB12 will have a strong MVP case this year and have another pro bowl season and possibly all pro.
1. Patrick Mahomes
Do I really need to explain this? Mahomes is a generational talent and might have the best arm we have ever seen in the history of the NFL. Also, he has an amazing offense and the best play caller in the NFL. I expect Mahomes to put up legendary numbers this season.