College Football Week Zero

After a summer dominated by NIL legislation and drama throughout the NCAA, headlined by Texas and Oklahoma, we have finally made it. Let’s go. Week Zero is here. I have decided that with each week this blog will be turned into a more gambling/analysis centric content base, where hopefully we can make some money together. Also, if I start to choke, I should be an automatic fade and make you money regardless. As the NFL season draws near, I will begin to add those plays into the mix as well. The plays will be listed with a confidence level next ranging from 1-5, with 5 being a “most confident max play”, and 1 being less confident, but still a play I like. Without further ado, here are my plays for week zero (and yes, I have no choice but to bet every game, since there are only five):

Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois, Over/Under 55.5

This matchup is what gets my blood flowing, B1G football is BACK. This matchup has a couple of factors that make me lean the Cornhuskers and the points. First and foremost, I do think Scott Frost at some point will figure it out at some point for the Huskers, but specifically in this one against Bret Bielema, who makes his debut as head coach of the Fighting Illini. Bielema obviously has seen plenty of success as a Big Ten head coach (see Wisconsin mid 2000s – early 2010s), but he has never had a roster with such little talent. That brings me into my next reason, which is the fact that Nebraska, top to bottom, has a much deeper and more talented roster, and I think they will come out hungry to play for their coach, who by no secret remains on the hot seat. Lastly, the x-factor is four-year starting QB for the Huskers, Adrian Martinez. I believe that he will see the success he had as a freshman and lead the Huskers past this Illini team. Give me the Huskers and the points

This game actually has two picks, with the second on the total. There should be a 10 mph crosswind, leading to potential missed FGs. On top of this, you have a run heavy Nebraska team, highlighted by the dual threat Quarterback. Also, if there is anything I remember about Bilema coaching Big Ten football, his play style is ground and pound, and take your time doing it. Illinois should eat the clock, especially if this game is close into the 2nd half.

Picks: (2) Nebraska (-6.5), (3) Under 55.5

UConn at Fresno State (-27.5), Over/Under 63

There really is not much to read into this game as UConn did not have a football season last year due to Covid, but there should be enough information to make an educated prediction on the total. Fresno State lit it up on the scoreboard last year, while also being 16th in total YPG at 479.3 a game. UConn on the other hand, though run heavy, has a coach that likes to push tempo. This goes along with a young UConn secondary that will get picked on all game. I think there are two totals in this game that I see value in as I expect Fresno State to light it up, and UConn to get a late score or two to push it over.

Picks: (4) Fresno State -27.5, (3) Total game over 63

Hawaii at UCLA (-17.5), Over/Under 68

God damn I love Hawaii football. There is something about them that makes you want to immediately take their over, but I think this one may be a little too high. read. I think UCLA will get off to an early lead, with the lead growing to 3+ TDs right around mid-3rd Quarter, where Chip Kelly will hit the brakes as he prepares for a premier matchup against LSU in the next week. This leaves a perfect opportunity for the backdoor Hawaii cover, which I think will happen in the 4th quarter, securing the spread cover. Let’s go Rainbow Warriors.

Picks: (1) Hawaii +17.5, (2) under 68.5

UTEP (-9.5) at New Mexico State, Over/Under 59

To be honest, I really do not have much knowledge on these two teams other than miscellaneous bowl games over the years, but UTEP is taking more momentum into this season, so fuck it, we ride.

Pick: (3) UTEP -9.5

Southern Utah at San Jose State (-24.5), Over/Under 56.5

Simply stated, San Jose State is going to come into this game coming off one of their best years in their program’s history. They’re going to stay hot, as they are legitimate Mountain West contenders against a weak Southern Utah team. We ride the favorites.

Pick: (2) San Jose State -24.5

Bonus Play: My Favorite Play of the Weekend is a Teaser (5)

Fresno State -21.5

Utep -4.5

NCAA Future Bets:

Notre Dame over 8.5 wins

Wisconsin over 9.5 wins

NC State over 6.5 win

South Carolina over 3.5 wins

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