Betting Record Year to Date: 6-3
Honestly, there was a point on Saturday where I thought not a single pick that I put out was going to hit, then by the grace of God we somehow finish 67%. Hell of a start to the year, but this week’s slate is where the fun begins. Week One. We have some great ranked matchups, potential shootouts, and lots of money to be made. Let’s get into the picks for this week (which starts Thursday night*).
Week One bets:
*Boise State vs. UCF (-4.5) Over/Under 68
In one of the two premier matchups on the first College Football Thursday, two perennial group of 5 contenders battle in what should be the highest quality of football yet this year. Either of these teams could come out and win this game handily, which makes me stray away from the spread. I think the safest play is to root for a semi-close game, with the over being the play. I’m looking at a final score of 41-35, or something in that ballpark between two electrifying offenses.
The pick: Over 68 (4)
*Ohio State (-14) at Minnesota Over/Under 65
I love this game for multiple reasons and am betting on both the spread and the total over. I think that new OSU Quarterback CJ Shroud will struggle to fill the void that the previous star OSU QBs have left. This, as well as the fact that OSU goes against one of the most veteran and poised QBs in the Big Ten in Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan. Minnesota is experienced and out to prove something after a difficult Covid-19 season. I think they right their wrongs and stay in the game late, bringing back the highly touted Minnesota from just two years ago.
As for the total, I believe the under is completely the play. Fleck doesn’t like to let his QB go crazy and normally keeps him reserved to short plays and runs. This, mixed in with a new OSU QB making his first start leads me to believe the clock will bleed tonight, so the under is the play.
The pick(s): Minnesota +14 (2), Under 65 (3)
*USF at NC State (-19), Over/Under 59
This was a last second add, but I had a revelation last night and I absolutely love this pick. NC State should dog these guys, as they have their stud QB in Leary back on the field. USF is typically very sloppy and makes mistakes early in the season (see Wisconsin team opener 2019). I think State takes care of the ball, I love the pack.
The pick: NC State -19 (3)
Michigan State at Northwestern (-3), Over/Under 45
Classic Big 10 slugfest, I don’t care, give me the under. I’m not digging any deeper, it should be the play.
The pick: Under 45 (2)
Penn State at Wisconsin (-5.5), Over/Under 50
Yeah yeah everyone is going to say this is a bias pick. But hell, I believe that if someone gives me a bet on their team, that is the pick I am going to take. Who knows their team and how they’ll play under certain situations other than a diehard? No one. Mertz is going to put on a show, the tandem of Chez Mellusi and Jalen Berger is going to run it down the Nittany Lions throats, and Sean Clifford is going to be stifled by one of the best Badger defenses yet. Give me the Badgers and the points.
The pick: Wisconsin -5.5 (3)
Marshall (-2.5) at Navy, Over/Under 47.5
I think that Navy is going to continue a regression, as they continue to miss their star QB Malcolm Perry from two years ago. Marshall returns the best receiver core in the C-USA, along with an offensive line who was one of the best units at protecting their Quarterback. Not saying this is going to be a blowout but take Marshall and the points. My favorite pick of the week.
The pick: Marshall -2.5 (5)
Texas Tech (-1.5) vs Houston, Over/Under 64.5
This is a completely strategic play on how ‘sharp money’ is pushing this game. The line started at -6.5 Texas Tech, and whether it was an overvaluation of Tech, undervaluing Houston, or bettors believing this is just the wrong line, it has been hammered down to -1.5. I love this trend and it makes me think that Houston will be able to cover. Houston also tends to have an explosive offense and should be able to exploit and shaky Texas Tech defense. Whichever team ends up with no, or less, 2nd half turnovers win this game.
The pick: Houston +1.5 (2)
Georgia vs. Clemson (-3.5), Over/Under 50.5
This is my ‘hot take’ pick of the week, as I think Georgia is being undervalued at a neutral site. DJ is going to have to show out if the Bulldogs want a chance, but I think JT Daniels plays better than Clemson’s young gun and the Bulldogs cover the spread.
The pick: Georgia +3.5 (2)
Nevada at California (-3.5), Over/Under 52.5
Nevada QB, Carson Strong, is going to make a strong introduction in a week 1 win over Cal. He is a borderline first round pick, much like Zac Wilson was early last year… We all saw what happened there. I trust points to be scored in this game, and I believe Nevada wins outright.
The pick: Nevada +3.5 (4)
UCLA vs. LSU (-3), Over/Under 65
In my opinion, with their question marks at QB, I think LSU is being overvalued. UCLA looked dominant week 1, with their veteran QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the charge. I love the Bruins to stay hot and catch this LSU team off guard and win the game outright. Also, Chip Kelly is back to wearing his visor… UCLA may be playoff bound.
The pick: UCLA +3 (3)
Bet Records by confidence level YTD: