Current Record to Date: 64-49-2 (57%)
Total Units on the Season: +12.74 Units
We’ve been on a heater these last two weekends and I’d be a fool not to warn of possible regression this week, but I’m not sure because this is one of my favorite, most confident slates of the year. Each of these games seems pretty straightforward, so we’ll see if I’m right. 19 plays this weekend, Let’s ride:
Kansas at Oklahoma State (-31), Over/Under 54
Oklahoma State has a very underrated defense. Kansas is coming off a big let-down of potentially upsetting Oklahoma, but they will come back down to earth. I don’t see them scoring above 17, so even if OK State were to cover the spread of 31 then they still cover the under. I’ll take my chances.
The Pick: Under 54 (4)
Colorado at Oregon (-24), Over/Under 49
Colorado has a tough time scoring the ball against anybody, and Oregon has a stifling defense that should limit them to few if any points. 31-7 Oregon in this one.
The Pick: Under 49 (4)
Kentucky (-1.5) at Miss State, Over/Under 47
This is a weird angle to play but we’ll do it, Mississippi State is 24th in Pass Success rate, while Kentucky is 113th in Pass Defense success rate. This should help Miss State all night, not to mention Starkville is one of the hardest places to play well.. especially at night (ask my NC State ml play at Starkville earlier this year).
The Pick: Mississippi State +1.5/sprinkle Moneyline (3)
Ole Miss at Auburn (-2.5), Over/Under 66
To be completely honest, this is a situational, weird college football play. Ole Miss is better than Auburn, or at least they should be. BUT going into Auburn, for their biggest game of the year outside of the Iron Bowl should be a big spot for Auburn. Bo Nix will take care of the ball and make ridiculous plays that will somehow lead to them winning, I am confident in that. Go Tigers.
The Pick: Auburn -2.5 (2)
FSU at Clemson (-9.5), Over/Under 47
Sprinkling on the under, Clemson won’t score and is playing against a team that can play up to their competition. As for the spread, Clemson has yet to cover one (0-7).. I’ve been fading them for weeks now and I won’t stop now. FSU is in a spot to not be the laughingstock of the ACC with a big win here, so I’ll take the points and sprinkle Moneyline.
The Pick: Florida State +9.5 (3)/sprinkle Moneyline, Under 47 (1)
Michigan (-4.5) at Michigan State, Over/Under 51
Another game I see value in two sides in, this under should be a play. Both are run-heavy offenses with stifling defenses. I love the under and I see this one staying close the entire way through. 20-17, something along those lines.
The Pick: Under 51 (5), MSU +4.5 (3)
Rutgers (-1) vs Illinois, Over/Under 41.5
I love this game. Illinois is in a complete letdown spot after their incredible with against Penn State last weekend. Schiano is going to dial something up, and this game stays low scoring with a late Rutgers score to win.
The Pick: Rutgers -1 (3), Under 41.5 (2)
Indiana at Maryland -5.5
No Penix. No Tuttle. Advantage Maryland. They should be able to put up some points and get back on track after a couple bad weeks. Tua’s little bro leads them to victory and a cover.
The Pick: Maryland -5.5 (3)
Virginia at BYU (-3), Over/Under 64
Virginia’s QB should be in the Heisman race. He has the best stats in the country, and BYU has a traditionally stout rush defense, but that should not matter against a Power 5 team who is averaging close to 400 ypg through the air. The defense will play a pivotal role, and if UVA can stop them in the 4th, they win outright in a close one.
The Pick: UVA +3 (2)/sprinkle moneyline
Oregon state (-1.5) at California, Over/Under 55
Oregon State is coming off a great win against Utah, and I think they continue against a bad California team. 1.5 is asking for people to take the bait, and I will. I think vegas has been wrong on trap games this year, and it continues this week.
The Pick: Oregon State -1.5 (4)
Duke at Wake Forest (-16.5), Over/Under 70
Points. Points. Points. That is all, zero defense, all points. Take the over.
The Pick: Over 70 (2)
Texas at Baylor (-3), Over/Under 61.5
Texas’s offense has been doing well, and I think they get it together and do well against the Bears this weekend. We’ll see but Hook em’.
The Pick: Texas +3 (2)/Sprinkle Moneyline
Iowa at Wisconsin (-3.5), Over/Under 37
If I had a nickel for every slugfest Iowa vs Wisconsin game in my life, I would probably have like 60 cents which is too much, but a yearly tradition. This game is always the first team to score wins, and I don’t see that changing this year.
The Pick: Under 37 (3)
Fresno State at SDSU (-1), Over/Under 44.5
I am going to continue to take SDSU each week until they give me a reason not to. They have a stingy defense, and (as dumb as this sounds) the best punter in the country so opponents continuously have to build long, sustainable drives which are hard to come by. SDSU wins.
The Pick: SDSU -1 (2)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-20), Over/Under 67
Oklahoma should not be three-touchdown favorites against anybody after their last couple of games and how close they have been. This will probably be the week they figure it out, but I’ll take my chances.
The Pick: Texas Tech +20 (1)
SMU at Houston (-1), Over/Under 62
This game is going to be a track meet. The AAC is one conference where I almost exclusively bet overs if I take anything because they have little to no defense and a ton of speed. This one should be 38-31, something along that line.
The Pick: Over 62 (2)
Picks by Confidence:
1: 1-3 -2.0 units
2: 14-14 -2.91 units
3: 22-15-1 +3.6 units
4: 13-11 +3.1 units
5: 13-10-1 +3.1 units
Moneyline bets +6.55 units