Updated: Oct 24
Current Record to Date: 55-46-2
Total Units on the Season: +10.84 Units
Last week was probably the hottest I’ve ever gotten betting college football, going 15-5 on the weekend, while seeing the board as clearly as I ever have. I decided to go back and give an updated ‘Units’ amount on the full season, including the given underdog Moneyline plays. Right now, if you had placed $10 on every bet, you would be up roughly $108 on the season. Not too bad thanks to last weekend. I am going to continue my mentality from last week of going down the slate and simply taking what I like, fewer metrics involved and more gut plays and see if it continues to work. Let’s ride:
Colorado State (-3) at Utah State, Over/Under 58.5
Deven Thompkins… Remember this name because he is a mid-major player that could make noise in April around NFL Draft season. I think USU is being undervalued as a home dog tonight and I like them to cover and win outright.
The Pick: Utah State +3 (2)/sprinkle Moneyline
Clemson at Pitt (-3), Over/Under 48
This is a weekly thing at this point, keep fading Clemson. They have yet to cover and are dead. Every game is far too close. I think Pittsburgh is in a much better spot than Clemson, with a more veteran, and better Quarterback. Give me Pitt.
The Pick: Pitt -3 (2)
Oregon at UCLA (-1), Over/Under 60.5
I absolutely love UCLA in this spot. UCLA was my pick to win the Pac-12, and I think they still have a chance to after they win this one. DTR and Chip Kelly are an electric duo, and you never know if you’ll get the Oregon team that beat Ohio State, or the team from last week who barely covered against Cal. Give me the Bruins at home.
The Pick: UCLA -1 (4)
NC State (-3) at Miami, Over/Under 53
This is my favorite play of the week. I took the Wolfpack over 6.5 wins on the year, and I will continue to take them each week until they give me a reason not to. This is a very similar spot to last week, where the Wolfpack on the road have a trap “-3” line against a team they are better than. Last week they killed BC, this week I’m looking for them to do the same against a mentally defeated Miami team.
The Pick: NC State -3 (5)
Colorado at California (-8.5), Over/Under 43.5
Colorado has a stout defense, and I think they can play with this mediocre Cal team coming off a tough loss to Oregon last week. I think the fact that they could’ve beat Oregon will haunt them, allowing the Buffs to stay around in this one. Buffs and the points.
The Pick: Colorado +8.5 (2)
Syracuse at VT (-3), Over/Under 46
Cuse runs a 3-3-5 against a team that isn’t great through the air. This will be a weird look for Tech, but their defense will keep them in this and make it hard for Cuse to score. I love the under in this one with the good defenses.
The Pick: Under 46 (1)
Maryland at Minnesota (-4), Over/Under 54.5
I absolutely love Minnesota in this spot. Maryland did their usual "score a lot of points against bad teams to start the year then implode against Big Ten competition", and I think this week continues it. Minnesota won outright against Nebraska last weekend as a home dog, and I think they play Maryland well, winning by a TD or more.
The Pick: Minnesota -4 (3)
Oklahoma State at ISU (-7), Over/Under 47
I lied about all gut plays. This is a sharp play, as this line is very fishy meaning Vegas knows something. I think ISU will hold OK State to less than 20 points and cover the spread.
The Pick: ISU -7 (2)
Northwestern at Michigan (-23.5), Over/Under 51
This one has under written all over it. Something along the lines of 34-10, 31-13, and in a classic Big Ten run-fest.
The Pick: Under 51 (3)
LSU at Ole Miss (-7.5), Over/Under 76
This is an interesting one. A pissed-off Lane Kiffin after last week’s trash incident at Tennessee, against an LSU team playing for their coach who has been facing bad press. I really want to take a side in this so I will sprinkle Ole Miss spread, but it scares me, so I am going to with the under as my larger plays, as the two teams will figure it out on defense when it matters. 41-31 finish, something around that.
The Pick: Under 76 (3), Ole Miss -7.5 (1)
Tennessee at Bama (-25), Over/Under 67.5
I absolutely LOVE Tennessee in this one. Alabama is getting a few too many points against a team that has been pretty solid since starting Hooker at QB. I could see this score getting a little inflated at the end, but I think Tennessee does enough to hang around and cover.
The Pick: Tennessee +25 (4)
USC at ND (-7), Over/Under 58
Notre Dame is going to win this game at home. This is going to be close early, as rivalry games always are, but I just think the Irish are in a much better place than the Trojans right now, and they manage to win by 10-13.
The Pick: ND -7 (2)
SC at Texas A&M (-20), Over/Under 45
South Carolina can’t score, Texas A&M has a (traditionally) stout defense. Not to mention SC’s only bright spot is the defense. This game goes under.
The Pick: Under 45 (3)
Wisconsin (-3) at Purdue, Over/Under 40.5
I want to take the under but part of me thinks this is a huge letdown spot for the Boilermakers, as Wisco is going to run it down their throats and be the more physical team. I think the Badgers go on the road and cover.
The Pick: Wisco -3 (2)
Nevada at Fresno State (-3.5), Over/Under 64.5
I am a huge Carson Strong guy, and in these games, the team with the better QB typically wins. Give me Nevada and the points as a road dog.
The Pick: Nevada +3.5 (3)/sprinkle Moneyline
San Diego State at Air Force (-3), Over/Under 38.5
This is a late add because I saw this line late but there is no reason SDSU is underdogs In this spot. Wrong team is favored just like when SDSU was +3 against Arizona earlier in the year And rocked them. Gimme SDSU and the points.
the Pick: SDSU +3 (5)/sprinkle Moneyline
Picks by Confidence:
1: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
2: 10-12 (-2.91 units)
3: 19-14-1 (+3.6 units)
4: 13-9 (+3.1 units)
5: 13-9-1 (+3.1 units)
Moneyline bets +5.95 units