Updated: Oct 8
Current Record to Date: 30-30-1
College football is so god damn funny. This ridiculous record through four weeks is proof that you could probably throw darts at a board to pick your games and end up with the same record I sit at. With that being said, the ship is going to be corrected. You have probably heard me say this once, twice, hell maybe every week, but I am addicted to the slate this weekend. This Saturday has a little bit of everything. We have a 79-point total in Bama vs Ole Miss, a B1G slugfest between Wisco and Michigan, and every mediocre school in the country in between. These are the days during quarantine I said that I would never take for granted again, and in honor of that promise, I am once again going to bet too many games. But hey, let’s get hot:
Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland, Over/Under 47.5
I think this total is set at the exact right number, as this is the type 27-24 slugfest, as it should be close. On paper, Iowa should win. They have the better wins, the ranking, everything that you look for. But at this number I am going to take Maryland and the points. I think their offense is strong enough to keep them in this game and taking them +9.5 in a teaser would work very well.
The Pick: Maryland +3.5 (2)
Houston at Tulsa (-3.5), Over/Under 54
This is a classic "wrong team is favored" game that we rarely get in College Football. We saw this a couple of weeks ago with SDSU being underdogs to Arizona... then ended up winning outright by 30ish. This is the same case. Tulsa has looked bad in losses, and anything but dominant in their wins. I expect the battle tested Cougars to be able to score a little bit, winning this by a touchdown or so.
The Pick: Houston +3.5/moneyline (4)
Ole Miss at Bama (-15), Over/Under 79
First and foremost, though I am not placing a bet on the total in this game, if you take the under you are a square and I will not be friends with you. We root for two things in College Football: Chaos and Points in primetime games. The key there is primetime games. I love B1G shitters more than anyone, but if it’s a primetime slot give me some action. This game, as predicted, should be a shootout as two top four offenses face off. Betting against Bama has been a death sentence in most cases, but I am all in on the Lane Train. Coral should be able to keep this close, think Chad Kelly a couple years back. Hotty Toddy baby.
The Pick: Ole Miss +15 (3)
Arkansas at Georgia (-18.5), Over/Under 48
Vegas is begging the public to take Arkansas but I will gladly fall into their trap. Arkansas has been a surprise team this year, and they beat a gritty A&M defense last year. I believe that will serve to be a nice practice before going up against the best defense in the country in the Dawgs. Both Kirby and Odom limit explosive plays, with both teams working at a high run-heavy clip. This means the game clock should roll, and this game should stay within three scores. Too many points.
The Pick: Arkansas +18.5 (4)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-2), Over/Under 43.5
Damn you, Vegas. I was praying I could get the Badgers at + odds off a rocky game that got out of hand last week against the Irish. Wisconsin should be able to run all over Michigan and should be able to prevent Michigan from being able to do so. Wisconsin is #1 in the FBS at limiting explosive runs, and Michigan runs at a 74% clip. Make Michigan throw and they lose, Wisco does just that.
The Pick: Wisconsin -2 (5)
Cincinnati (-2) at Notre Dame, Over/Under 50.5
ND seemed to hit its stride last week against Wisconsin, and I think Cincy, on the road, is completely overvalued in this spot. The one decent team Cincy played on the road was Indiana (where they were -4), and they were one Indiana blow-up away from losing that game outright. ND is better than Indiana, especially, so a 5.5 point swing between the two games is ridiculous. ND at + odds.
The Pick: Notre Dame (+2)/moneyline (4)
Auburn at LSU (-3.5), Over/Under 56
This is a fade LSU spot. Yes “But Death Valley at home!”, I don’t care. I think this line has LSU overrated and I am not going to fall for it. Auburn last week had a game where they did not give a shit because they were so focused on this one. Betting Bo Nix is torture, but if they can almost pull off a win at a Penn State white-out, Death Valley against an inferior team should be a win.t Auburn should be able to limit explosive plays, much like against PSU, and be able to come out on top.
The Pick: Auburn +3.5 (3)/sprinkle moneyline
Troy at South Carolina (-7), Over/Under 42.5
Sure, bias, but this a stupid line. Troy is really good against very shitty teams, which is why they always make bowl games. But SC is going to be a damn SEC team for a change, run it down their throats, and win by 13+ points in this one. Book it.
The Pick: South Carolina -7 (5)
ASU at UCLA (-3), Over/Under 55.5
This is two dynamic, top 10 QBs in the country battling it out. Loser is out of the playoff race, winner still has a chance with a win over Oregon. With the spread, I lean UCLA and have decided to play it, even after initially targeting the over. I think this is going to be a track meet in the second half. First half should start slow, but the 4th quarter will be electric and put this total over.
The Pick: UCLA -3 (3), Over 55.5 (3)
Oregon (-8) at Stanford, Over/Under 58
Oregon has been elite this year, plain and simple. We have not seen this well-rounded of a Pac-12 team since Oregon made the playoff roughly 7 years ago. Stanford is battling injuries, and as long as Oregon wants to play this game, they should be able to cover fairly easily. I am taking the Ducks.
The Pick: Oregon -8 (2)
Boston College at Clemson (-15), over/Under 46
Simply put, Clemson cannot find any rhythm on offense. DJ has significantly underperformed, no true RB1, and their defense can only do so much. The total points to a low scoring game, where I give the advantage to BC to keep it close.
The Pick: BC +15 (4)
Memphis (-11) at Temple, Over/Under 60
Memphis is always going to put up points, and Temple is putrid. That's it. That's the read on this game. Tigers roll.
The Pick: Memphis -11 (1)
Picks by Confidence: